Gameweek 3 Predictions
Captain picks for GW3
Chance of a goal or assist, from the model's expected goals and assists
Match Outcomes
10 FixturesFriday 4 September
Ipswich Town
Saturday 5 September
Newcastle
Brentford
Brighton
Fulham
Man City
Nott'm Forest
Hull City
Sunday 6 September
Everton
Arsenal
Player Projections
GW3–5 · Top 25
How did we do in GW10?
Our top 10, as predicted before the deadline, against what they scoredOur top 10 averaged 5.4 points, against 2.9 for the average player who played. The week's top scorer was Barry with 16.
How these numbers are produced
Match outcomes
Attack and defence ratings are fitted for every club from three seasons of real matches — expected goals, shots on target and the closing betting market — weighted towards recent form and pulled back towards the league average where the evidence is thin. Those set an expected goal rate for both sides, and summing a Poisson grid over every scoreline gives the home / draw / away probabilities, with a correction for how much more often real football ends 0-0 and 1-1 than independence predicts. A club with no top-flight record yet falls back to FPL's own strength ratings.
Player expected points
Per-90 rates for goals, assists, saves, bonus and cards are scored against the real FPL points rules — a clean sheet is the opponent's own goal rate failing to produce a goal, and the conceded deduction is the expected value of the rule rather than half the expected goals. Early in a season those rates are shrunk towards the player's previous season, so one quiet opener does not become his level. That structural estimate is blended with a form prior and with FPL's own next-gameweek estimate, weighted by how much of a record there is to read, and then half-and-half with the player's own points per gameweek so far — the mix that ranked players best when past predictions were scored against what actually happened. Expected minutes lean on the last three gameweeks, so a player who has just been dropped stops looking like a starter.
