Gameweek 1 Predictions
A Poisson goal model forecasts every fixture; the xPts engine scores every player from their per-90 rates, expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
Match Outcomes
10 Fixtures
Arsenal
Hull City
Nott'm Forest
Ipswich Town
Everton
Brentford
Brighton
Man City
Newcastle
Fulham
Player Projections
Top 20
Haaland
FWD
Man City · £15.5m
B.Fernandes
MID
Man Utd · £12.0m
Gabriel
DEF
Arsenal · £8.0m
Saka
MID
Arsenal · £9.5m
O'Reilly
DEF
Man City · £6.5m
Calafiori
DEF
Arsenal · £5.5m
Raya
GKP
Arsenal · £6.0m
Mbeumo
MID
Man Utd · £8.0m
Gibbs-White
MID
Nott'm Forest · £8.0m
Palmer
MID
Chelsea · £9.5m
Semenyo
MID
Man City · £8.5m
Guéhi
DEF
Man City · £6.0m
Bruno G.
MID
Arsenal · £7.0m
Cherki
MID
Man City · £7.5m
Dowman
MID
Arsenal · £5.5m
Awoniyi
FWD
Nott'm Forest · £5.5m
Thiago
FWD
Brentford · £8.0m
Roefs
GKP
Sunderland · £5.0m
Pickford
GKP
Everton · £5.5m
Tarkowski
DEF
Everton · £6.0m
How these numbers are produced
Match outcomes
Each club's published strength ratings are normalised across the league into attack and defence multipliers, which set an expected goal rate for both sides. Summing an independent Poisson grid over every scoreline gives the home / draw / away probabilities. Published fixture difficulty is blended in where available.
Player expected points
Per-90 rates for goals, assists, saves, bonus and cards are scaled by expected minutes and by the difficulty of the upcoming fixture, then scored against the real FPL points rules. That structural estimate is blended with a form prior and with FPL's own next-gameweek estimate.