Gameweek 5 Predictions
A Poisson goal model forecasts every fixture; the xPts engine scores every player from their per-90 rates, expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
Match Outcomes
10 FixturesFriday 18 September
Brentford
Saturday 19 September
Spurs
Brighton
Everton
Newcastle
Nott'm Forest
Sunday 20 September
Leeds
Man City
Bournemouth
Fulham
Player Projections
Top 20
How these numbers are produced
Match outcomes
Attack and defence ratings are fitted for every club from three seasons of real matches — expected goals, shots on target and the closing betting market — weighted towards recent form and pulled back towards the league average where the evidence is thin. Those set an expected goal rate for both sides, and summing a Poisson grid over every scoreline gives the home / draw / away probabilities, with a correction for how much more often real football ends 0-0 and 1-1 than independence predicts. A club with no top-flight record yet falls back to FPL's own strength ratings.
Player expected points
Per-90 rates for goals, assists, saves, bonus and cards are scored against the real FPL points rules — a clean sheet is the opponent's own goal rate failing to produce a goal, and the conceded deduction is the expected value of the rule rather than half the expected goals. Early in a season those rates are shrunk towards the player's previous season, so one quiet opener does not become his level. That structural estimate is blended with a form prior and with FPL's own next-gameweek estimate, weighted by how much of a record there is to read.
