Gameweek 3 Predictions
A Poisson goal model forecasts every fixture; the xPts engine scores every player from their per-90 rates, expected minutes and fixture difficulty.
Match Outcomes
10 FixturesFriday 4 September
Ipswich Town
Saturday 5 September
Newcastle
Brentford
Brighton
Fulham
Man City
Nott'm Forest
Hull City
Sunday 6 September
Everton
Arsenal
Player Projections
Top 20
How these numbers are produced
Match outcomes
Attack and defence ratings are fitted for every club from three seasons of real matches — expected goals, shots on target and the closing betting market — weighted towards recent form and pulled back towards the league average where the evidence is thin. Those set an expected goal rate for both sides, and summing a Poisson grid over every scoreline gives the home / draw / away probabilities, with a correction for how much more often real football ends 0-0 and 1-1 than independence predicts. A club with no top-flight record yet falls back to FPL's own strength ratings.
Player expected points
Per-90 rates for goals, assists, saves, bonus and cards are scored against the real FPL points rules — a clean sheet is the opponent's own goal rate failing to produce a goal, and the conceded deduction is the expected value of the rule rather than half the expected goals. Early in a season those rates are shrunk towards the player's previous season, so one quiet opener does not become his level. That structural estimate is blended with a form prior and with FPL's own next-gameweek estimate, weighted by how much of a record there is to read.
