AI Predictions

Poisson match modelling and expected points, computed on the server

ID 1900182 –

Gameweek 5 Predictions

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Captain picks for GW5

Chance of a goal or assist, from the model's expected goals and assists
(C) Haaland MCI · 7.7 xPts · ~90' 64% returns Tarkowski EVE · 6.7 xPts · ~90' 13% returns Maitland-Niles EVE · 6.4 xPts · ~89' 20% returns

Match Outcomes

10 Fixtures

Friday 18 September

Brentford
20:00
Chelsea
37% 27% draw 37%
1.47 xG Too close to call 1.47 xG

Saturday 19 September

Spurs
12:30
Aston Villa
38% 27% draw 35%
1.49 xG Too close to call 1.40 xG
Brighton
15:00
Arsenal
22% 27% draw 51%
1.03 xG Arsenal favourites 1.65 xG
Everton
15:00
Ipswich Town
56% 25% draw 20%
1.86 xG Everton favourites 1.03 xG
Newcastle
15:00
Hull City
56% 24% draw 20%
1.92 xG Newcastle favourites 1.06 xG
Nott'm Forest
17:30
Coventry City
57% 24% draw 18%
1.87 xG Nott'm Forest favourites 0.98 xG

Sunday 20 September

Leeds
14:00
Crystal Palace
37% 29% draw 34%
1.35 xG Too close to call 1.28 xG
Man City
14:00
Sunderland
66% 21% draw 13%
2.12 xG Man City strong favourites 0.83 xG
Bournemouth
14:00
Liverpool
34% 26% draw 39%
1.47 xG Too close to call 1.58 xG
Fulham
16:30
Man Utd
29% 27% draw 44%
1.27 xG Man Utd favourites 1.60 xG

Player Projections

GW5–7 · Top 25
All GKP DEF MID FWD
Any price ≤ £5m ≤ £6.5m ≤ £8m ≤ £10m
Next GW Next 3 GWs Next 5 GWs Most points Best value
1
Maitland-Niles DEF Everton · £4.5m ~84' nailed · 3.50 xPts/£m
15.8 xPts
2
Tzolakis GKP Hull City · £4.7m ~90' nailed · 2.95 xPts/£m
13.9 xPts
3
Verbruggen GKP Brighton · £4.7m ~90' nailed · 2.88 xPts/£m
13.5 xPts
4
Bogle DEF Leeds · £4.8m ~80' nailed · 2.67 xPts/£m
12.8 xPts
5
Gomez MID Brighton · £5.0m ~76' nailed · 2.33 xPts/£m
11.7 xPts
6
Mitchell DEF Crystal Palace · £4.5m ~90' nailed · 2.54 xPts/£m
11.4 xPts
7
F.Kadıoğlu DEF Brighton · £4.3m ~83' nailed · 2.63 xPts/£m
11.3 xPts
8
Suzuki GKP Aston Villa · £5.0m ~90' nailed · 2.25 xPts/£m
11.3 xPts
9
Khalaili DEF Crystal Palace · £5.0m ~90' nailed · 2.22 xPts/£m
11.1 xPts
10
Justin DEF Leeds · £4.5m ~74' rotation risk · 2.42 xPts/£m
10.9 xPts
11
Pope GKP Newcastle · £4.8m ~64' rotation risk · 2.25 xPts/£m
10.8 xPts
12
Dasilva DEF Coventry City · £4.0m ~89' nailed · 2.69 xPts/£m
10.7 xPts
13
Yalcouyé MID Brighton · £4.4m ~66' rotation risk · 2.43 xPts/£m
10.7 xPts
14
Konsa DEF Arsenal · £4.8m ~78' nailed · 2.22 xPts/£m
10.7 xPts
15
Kelleher GKP Brentford · £5.0m ~90' nailed · 2.13 xPts/£m
10.6 xPts
16
Leno GKP Fulham · £4.5m ~90' nailed · 2.34 xPts/£m
10.5 xPts
17
Affengruber DEF Fulham · £4.5m ~75' nailed · 2.32 xPts/£m
10.5 xPts
18
Botman DEF Newcastle · £5.0m ~71' rotation risk · 2.08 xPts/£m
10.4 xPts
19
Richards DEF Crystal Palace · £4.9m ~89' nailed · 2.12 xPts/£m
10.4 xPts
20
Thomas DEF Coventry City · £4.0m ~88' nailed · 2.58 xPts/£m
10.3 xPts
21
Bassey DEF Fulham · £4.5m ~81' nailed · 2.27 xPts/£m
10.2 xPts
22
Kamada MID Crystal Palace · £5.0m ~74' rotation risk · 2.02 xPts/£m
10.1 xPts
23
O'Shea DEF Ipswich Town · £4.0m ~90' nailed · 2.52 xPts/£m
10.1 xPts
24
Trafford GKP Leeds · £5.0m ~52' rotation risk · 2.00 xPts/£m
10.0 xPts
25
Ajer DEF Brentford · £4.5m ~73' rotation risk · 2.22 xPts/£m
10.0 xPts

How did we do in GW10?

Our top 10, as predicted before the deadline, against what they scored

Our top 10 averaged 5.4 points, against 2.9 for the average player who played. The week's top scorer was Alysson with 16.

Haaland 6.6 → 2 Gabriel 5.8 → 8 Rice 5.1 → 3 Van Hecke 5.1 → 4 Raya 5.1 → 6 De Cuyper 5.1 → 6 Konsa 5.0 → 8 Evanilson 5.0 → 9 Palmer 5.0 → 2 Verbruggen 4.9 → 6

How these numbers are produced

Match outcomes

Attack and defence ratings are fitted for every club from three seasons of real matches — expected goals, shots on target and the closing betting market — weighted towards recent form and pulled back towards the league average where the evidence is thin. Those set an expected goal rate for both sides, and summing a Poisson grid over every scoreline gives the home / draw / away probabilities, with a correction for how much more often real football ends 0-0 and 1-1 than independence predicts. A club with no top-flight record yet falls back to FPL's own strength ratings.

Player expected points

Per-90 rates for goals, assists, saves, bonus and cards are scored against the real FPL points rules — a clean sheet is the opponent's own goal rate failing to produce a goal, and the conceded deduction is the expected value of the rule rather than half the expected goals. Early in a season those rates are shrunk towards the player's previous season, so one quiet opener does not become his level. That structural estimate is blended with a form prior and with FPL's own next-gameweek estimate, weighted by how much of a record there is to read, and then half-and-half with the player's own points per gameweek so far — the mix that ranked players best when past predictions were scored against what actually happened. Expected minutes lean on the last three gameweeks, so a player who has just been dropped stops looking like a starter.